Keeping a watch on the growing arc of violence

The present period is proving to be an unpredictable one for most parts of the world. Violence is raging across parts of Europe and in West Asia, while several other regions are facing internecine conflicts to varying degrees. At the risk of repetition, it can be said that the world order after 1945 has broken down irretrievably.

The prolonged war in Ukraine, alongside the wanton targeting of innocent civilians in Gaza and West Asia by the Israeli armed forces, underscore a reality, viz., that the United Nations Security Council and the International Court of Justice have become mere bystanders, if not complicit, in most events of this nature. For political philosophers who still hark back to an earlier era, it should be evident that principles enunciated by the Dutch philosopher, Hugo Grotius (1583-1645), have today become part of the ‘detritus of history’. There is no longer any “common moral community” governed by “eternal and immutable ideas of right and wrong”. What is apparent today is a ‘waste-land of morality’.

Subterranean activity

It would indeed be a gross misjudgment if countries that are in the driving seat today, specially those active in West Asia, were to believe that their current actions are likely to contribute to permanent peace. The war in Gaza and Lebanon may have given Israel, and at one stage removed the United States, an impression that ‘peace is at hand’ in West Asia. Also, that they had effectively undermined the Iran-led ‘Axis of Resistance’, and considerably reduced Tehran’s influence in the region. Viewed dispassionately, current events can at best be viewed as a ‘pyrrhic victory’, the impact of which is uncertain. A great deal of subterranean activity is meanwhile beginning to be seen, the outcome of which is unlikely to lead to a lasting peace.

First and foremost, Islamist terrorism has hardly been blunted; nor have other major concerns which have existed for decades abated. Calls for ‘global jihad’ and activities by ‘lone wolf’ attackers can still be heard. More important, today’s Islamist terrorists are being radicalised online, and have not, by any means, been contained. The belief, hence, that Islamist terrorism is no longer a serious threat would be incorrect.

Most experts hew to the view that Islamist terrorism 3.0 is still alive and threatening. It is multifaceted and decentralised, and is increasingly digitally empowered, making it an evolving threat to global security — possibly more so than in earlier decades. The weakening of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State (ISIS), temporarily, should not, hence, contribute to a belief that Islamist terrorism had weakened irretrievably. Rather, the signs are that it is rapidly adapting to digital terrorism, spreading extremist ideologies through social media, and provisioning for an increased role through decentralised groups. In essence, it is evolving into a different avatar. Dealing with this new phase of terrorism can prove difficult. Finding the right method to deal with this problem will not be easy.

Islamist terrorism has been evolving for a long time. If 1979 is regarded as a critical turning point in the evolution of a new wave of Islamist militancy, then a quick look at its evolving dimension over the past five decades may prove useful in finding a solution. It was in 1979 that a new brand of militant Islam reared its head — in Afghanistan, it was the die-hard Sunni brand, and in Iran it was the Shia variant. Both, separately though not jointly, were seeking to bring about a general uprising throughout the Muslim world and even beyond, aimed at overthrowing infidel and pro-western regimes. Radicalisation on the Sunni side resulted in the formation of al-Qaeda and the IS (mainly in Syria), each talking of global jihad. The jihad wave waxed and waned over the years, and while al-Qaeda concentrated its activities outside of West Asia, the IS remained essentially confined to West Asia.

While jihadism has, by no means, been defeated for now, it does appear that the internal dynamics of global jihad may have altered to some extent. Sunni radicalisation has been on the upswing lately, but global jihad is no longer their clarion call. This is notwithstanding renewed calls for unity in the Arab world against the Zionist enemy. Arab states are, instead, increasingly falling back on safeguarding their national interests. This has impacted the region’s political landscape, and will impact the future politics of West Asia and beyond.

A revival of terror

Meanwhile, terrorism, per se, is witnessing a revival of sorts. Both the IS and al-Qaeda are showing signs of a resurgence. The al-Qaeda has resumed training camps in Taliban-run Afghanistan, while the IS affiliate operating in Afghanistan — the Islamic State in Khorasan Province (ISKP) — is beginning to expand its footprint, moving further afield to hit targets beyond Afghanistan and Pakistan. Sporadic attacks in Moscow, Iran and Türkiye do reveal its newer footprints. Increasing attacks on military facilities and transport have also been reported in Pakistan, while isolated attacks have taken place in Bangladesh, Malaysia, Singapore and Thailand.

Sporadic terror attacks in different countries across the globe do not necessarily herald, at this point, a return to the kind of large-scale terror attacks seen previously. Nevertheless, a succession of smaller scale terror attacks, including of late, in countries in the West, have given rise to concerns in security circles about a possible recrudescence of terror, and, on a wider scale, than what was seen in the past decade. As matters stand today, security agencies across the world do believe that a determined effort is still needed to effectively decapitate the ‘terror apparatus’ before it takes on a more serious dimension.

Two recent terror incidents have jolted security agencies in the U.S. out of their complacency about possible terror attacks. In January, a yet-to-be-detected explosion took place in a Tesla cyber truck, in Las Vegas outside the hotel in which then U.S. President-elect Donald Trump, was staying. The occupant of the cyber truck was found dead inside the vehicle. He was later identified as someone who had previously been with the U.S. elite Special Forces engaged in counter-terrorism abroad.

In another, and a separate, incident in New Orleans, on New Year’s Day, Shamsuddin Jabbar, a 42-year-old American citizen and a military veteran who had worked as an IT specialist, drove a truck into a crowd in New Orleans, killing 14 people and injuring 35. His vehicle had a black IS flag attached to it. Jabbar was shot dead by the authorities before he could be interrogated, but an analysis of the incident suggests careful planning. The two incidents occurring side by side have given rise to fresh concerns of a revival and a resurgence of IS-style terror attacks. Both U.S. nationals, for instance, had a military background. Additional concerns relate to the advent of a new category of recruits into terror ranks. Meantime, U.S. intelligence services claim to have foiled a plot in Virginia.

Warnings that need to be heeded

Counter-terrorism experts, hence, have reason to believe that there is ample cause to be concerned. The two incidents have also revived memories of similar vehicle attacks in France and other European cities during the heyday of the IS. Hence, most counter-terrorism experts believe that the world needs to be prepared for a new wave of terror attacks. The fact that more and more information is forthcoming about a fresh wave of proselytisation by IS and al-Qaeda recruiters, employing the most modern methods, including Artificial Intelligence, is again highly disconcerting. The message that comes through loud and clear is that while matters relating to new terror methods and terror attacks are possibly still at an early stage, the warnings should not be ignored and steps need to be taken at the earliest to prevent a fresh wave of terror.

M.K. Narayanan is a former Director, Intelligence Bureau, a former National Security Adviser, and a former Governor of West Bengal